Image Credit: Netflix
For years, this debate has raged in Hollywood: Do movies released in theaters ultimately perform better on streaming platforms than direct-to-streaming originals? appears to be with netflix closer than ever To release their movies in theaters (two at the time of publishing), we’ve got the latest data Netflix and ChiFreshwhich uses Nielsen data, Hopefully the debate will be resolved.
Traditionalists and box-office purists have long argued that a theatrical window gives a film a “premium” feel, acting as a massive marketing campaign that pays dividends once the film hits Netflix, Max or Disney+. But does actual viewership data support this?
Updating his initial 2024 deep-dive with 18 more months of Nielsen data (spanning from January 2021 to March 2026), What’s on Netflix contributor Frédéric Durand analyzes over 600 movies to see which release strategy actually drives the most attention.
TL;DR – Despite what you may have been led to believe, Direct-to-streaming original still Outperforms theatrically released films on streaming.
Here are the details of the attractive 2026 Netflix and Shiffres Report FindingsAnd what this means for Netflix’s ongoing movie strategy.
Methodology: Apples to Apples
Before we discuss the winners and losers, it’s worth noting how Frederick crunched the numbers. They used Nielsen’s weekly top 10 data (US TV viewing only) and translated “minutes watched” Complete Visual Equivalent (CVE) Total minutes divided by the runtime of the film. This is a metric we use all the time here at What’s on Netflix because it provides a level playing field between a 90-minute comedy and a 3-hour epic.
then he saw first 14 days Availability of the film on streaming to capture the most important launch window.
Note: There is a slight oddity in Nielsen’s data. This makes SVOD viewing indistinguishable from paid VOD viewing on the same platform, meaning theatrical films get an estimated 5% to 15% artificial bump in these numbers. Keep that in mind when you look at how well streaming originals still perform!
Direct-to-streaming still dominates the top 100
If theatrical performance were truly a prerequisite for streaming dominance, you would expect the top 100 most-watched movies of the last five years to be dominated by multiplex hits. But it is not so at all.
According to updated 2026 data, the threshold to even break into the top 100 is now 15 million CVEs in the first 14 days. Of that specific top 100, Only 34% are dramatic films. The remaining 66% are direct-to-streaming originals.
In fact, the number one spot on the overall chart has recently moved. Pixar’s direct-to-Disney+ hit Luca held the crown for years, but by summer 2025, Netflix’s Happy Gilmore 2 is officially the most-watched movie in its first 14 days on streaming.
When compared to the top of the charts, the most watched direct-to-streaming films are 19% lead Among the most watched dramatic films. As you fall below the top 100, that difference increases to 25%. While the gap has narrowed slightly since 2024 (when original streaming has grown to more than 30-37%), the trend is clear: exclusivity largely drives initial viewers.
would like zootopia 2 Or Moana 2 Would they have gotten an even higher score if they skipped theaters and went straight to Disney+? We’ll never really know, but Frederick’s data suggests yes.
Live-action vs. animation: a tale of two genres
When you break down the data by genre, things get incredibly interesting.
Live-Action: Netflix’s Bread and Butter
In the live-action sphere, direct-to-streaming movies ditch theatrical releases altogether. Streaming originals get 37% to 41% more viewers than live-action films that first play in theaters.
Even if you remove big sequels (like happy gilmore 2 Or glass onion), direct-to-streaming originals still comfortably win the average. Netflix has essentially built its empire on this metric, proving that algorithms, front-page promotion, and sheer subscriber volume (aided by new exclusive movie releases) can attract larger audiences than a traditional theatrical marketing campaign.
Animation: Disney Influence
The animation tells a slightly different story, but it comes with a major asterisk. Since 2023, theatrical animated releases have, on average, outperformed direct-to-streaming animated films.
Why? Disney completely abandons its direct-to-streaming animation strategy (the Bob Chapek era that gave us Soul, LucaAnd to be red) and went back to theatre-first. With the supply of premium direct-to-streaming animated films cut off, theatrical releases naturally took the lead. However, the data notes that none of Disney’s recent theatrical-debuted animated hits have managed to match the streaming numbers Luca, to be redOr encanto On Disney+.
Does a theatrical film hold up better over time?
One argument for theatrical films is that they have better “legs” – meaning they hold audience interest longer than the flash-in-the-pan weekend drops of streaming originals.
To test this, Frederick looked at the evolution of viewership between 14 and 28 days. outcome?
- Dramatic live-action films Saw a manifold increase in their viewership 1.35x.
- Streaming live-action movies increased by a factor of 1.28x.
So yes, theatrical live-action movies get a very modest 5% edge in long-term retention. But that’s not enough to overcome the 30%+ head start of streaming originals in its first two weeks.
However, when it comes to the animation, the catch is the same regardless of how the film was released, but that shouldn’t be so surprising, considering that kids are known for repeat viewings. The top 10 movies with the best long-term hold were all kids’ movies (kids love reruns) or Christmas movies (which get a delayed boost as the holidays get closer). Buzz is more important than the release model. Just look at the viral success kpop demon hunter permanent dominance of or Encanto.
What does this mean for Netflix
Every time a big hit like Netflix releases glass onion Or happy gilmore 2, The Internet asks: “Why didn’t they put this in theaters for a month? They’re leaving money on the table!”
But maybe Netflix knows what it’s doing…
Frederick provided financial details in that earlier 2024 report, and they still mostly hold true today: Netflix’s North American revenues (now estimated at 44% of its total revenues and roughly $19.96BThe now-estimated $3.75 to $4.5 billion that traditional distributors share (based on a 50% to 55% share and a total box office of $7.5 to $9B) completely dwarfs the North American box office, up from $16B in the original report.
Spending millions to market a Netflix film in theaters for a wildly unexpected return at the box office — while simultaneously raking in 30% of its streaming viewership — doesn’t make financial sense for the streamer, and perhaps this best explains why Netflix, on the surface, is leaning on theaters, but as we’ve discussed before, that’s hardly the whole point. Instead, it’s being strategic with the stunt and treating it as a marketing exercise, with the added benefit of good PR, and perhaps opening doors that might not otherwise have been open for talent and the like.
Second, this data proves Box office success is not a prerequisite for streaming success. Some of the biggest theatrical hits languished entirely on streaming because the viewers who wanted to see them had already purchased tickets. In contrast, dramatic “flops” are preferred. the red one Or Encanto Could become a massive streaming giant.
Many thanks to Frederick D. of Netflix and ChiFresh for this data. If you like deep-dive streaming analytics, we highly recommend you check out his work subscribing to his newsletter!
What do you think about the theatrical vs. streaming debate? Let us know in the comments below!
